Gary Marcus(@GaryMarcus)

the inability of people here to do basic math (total lifetime donation/net worth) is astonishing.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 23:47:10 GMT

the inability of people here to do basic math (total lifetime donation/net worth) is astonishing.

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dario learned more from sam than most people realize.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 23:39:40 GMT

dario learned more from sam than most people realize.

Nobody Special@JG_Nuke

Anthropic is trying to rescue the Nscale IPO protect their own. 

Standard disclaimer applies: much like all the other deals previously announced, Anthropic doesn’t have the money.

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C’mon, Jensen. We are not stupid.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:13:08 GMT

C’mon, Jensen.  We are not stupid.

Kakashii@kakashiii111

Jensen: “We would not sell chips to irresponsible AI customers.”

Yet a large share of Nvidia’s revenue comes from irresponsible AI customers and suppliers.

????

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let’s have some perspective here, @altcap even if Elon actually carries through with this (not a g...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 13:46:03 GMT

let’s have some perspective here,  @altcap

even if Elon actually carries through with this (not a guarantee) he will have given away less than 2% of his fortune, which is an order of magnitude less than Bill Gates has.

in absolute dollars it would  be a fifth of what Buffet has given away.

Brad Gerstner@altcap

Incredible Elon!  This will be the largest philanthropic gift in history!  70 M accounts - every citizen under 18 & every child born forevermore now has a free, lifetime investment acct making them an owner in the upside of America & our greatest companies! 🇺🇸🚀🤍@TrumpAccounts@InvestAmerica24

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and “Safety” is literally their brand

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:25:59 GMT

and “Safety” is literally their brand

Grady Booch@Grady_Booch

Apparently, for @AnthropicAI, 50 deaths and a billion dollars are simply a cost of doing business.

This is unacceptable.

💬6🔄6❤️66👀5919📊10

indeed. and elon has already made clear that his (initial) purported donations will be for american ...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:19:04 GMT

indeed. and elon has already made clear that his (initial) purported donations will be for american children only.

Ruchir@heyruchir

man, I'm really not a fan of this tbh. It seems kind but I really don't want unelected technocrats to possess so much power that they're literally going to distribute capital. 

end result is simple: Anthropic PBC will give out more $$ than entire governments. So citizens of smaller countries will be at the mercy of Anthropic PBC. 

horrible outcome.

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if we give put enough stock in a “benefit fund” that we control, you won’t be too mad if a lot of pe...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:13:32 GMT

if we give put enough stock in a “benefit fund” that we control, you won’t be too mad if a lot of people die on our watch, right?

Jake Wintermute 🧬/acc@SynBio1

Anthropic's proposed AI safety bill sets "killing or seriously injuring more than 50 people" as the risk threshold for blocking the release of an AI model

In contrast, when a single patient (Jesse Gelsinger) died in a gene therapy clinical trial in 1999:

- The institute that ran the trial was dissolved
- The senior scientist running the trial was banned from clinical work for 5 years
- Gene therapy saw deep cuts in funding and research activity for a decade

Tech and biotech have just profoundly different cultures of risk. As AI companies increasingly engage with biomedical research, a culture clash is inevitable

politico.com/news/2026/10/1…

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update: i see that elon has offered one share of SpaceX (currently $146) to each child in America, s...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 10:49:04 GMT

update: i see that elon has offered one share of SpaceX (currently $146) to each child in America, sometime in 2027, with future donations promised but not specified. 

we will see if he follows through; that is zero for adults and hardly what i would call a high income in itself.

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.

This will be the first of many.

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elon did no such thing. what he said isn’t binding and he didn’t say how much and he didn’t say w...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 10:37:21 GMT

elon did no such thing.

what he said isn’t binding

and he didn’t say how much

and he didn’t say when 

and he has already ever give anything to charity (or without a quid pro quo)

how can people be this gullible?!

Chubby♨️@kimmonismus

Elon Musk just confirmed that its the beginning of Universal High income. Enjoy your last months before the abundance begins and we enter the golden era.

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imagine this, imagine that imagine a tech industry with no hype

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 05:03:14 GMT

imagine this, imagine that

imagine a tech industry with no hype

Veee@vikktorrrre

Dario Amodei: We may be only two or three years away from AI systems being better than humans at almost all tasks.

“I call it a country of geniuses in a data center.”

“Imagine tens of thousands of geniuses, smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across many fields.”

“They could cure diseases and extend the human lifespan.”

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we were able to double the human lifespan.”

“They may even build robots for themselves and project themselves into the physical world.”

“There are all kinds of questions around the balance of power.”

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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Subtitle of next essay. See if you can guess which company I am writing about. Their god complex i...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 03:30:41 GMT

Subtitle of next essay.

See if you can guess which company I am writing about.

Their god complex is starting to wear thin, just as their valuation is declining, and their true colors are starting to come out.

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master class in the U.S. Constitution.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:53:05 GMT

master class in the U.S. Constitution.

Brian Krassenstein@krassenstein

OMFG!  This response from @AbdulElSayed to a completely bigoted question is probably the best thing I’ve heard all year. 

Every bigot in America needs to listen to this three times.

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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how’s that tunnel coming?

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:42:20 GMT

how’s that tunnel coming?

sam@sam_d_1995

when did you first realize that Elon was a grifter? 

for me, it was the “verbal government approval” of a hyperloop back in 2017

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hard agree.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:37:34 GMT

hard agree.

Grady Booch@Grady_Booch

Zuck is a terrible human being.

muellershewrote.com/p/meta-took-do…

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can’t really tell the difference anymore

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:29:13 GMT

can’t really tell the difference anymore

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Sacks is right. Anthropic is playing games here. Trying to curry public favor while still holding c...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 01:26:12 GMT

Sacks is right. Anthropic is playing games here.

Trying to curry public favor while still holding control and resisting disclosure is annoying. 

And reeks of desperation.

David Sacks@DavidSacks

You’ve put 20% of your equity in an LLC. Whether it serves the public good remains to be seen.

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How a pause could actually be implemented, technically, if there was a political will to do so: htt...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 22:37:13 GMT

How a pause could actually be implemented, technically, if there was a political will to do so:

news.berkeley.edu/2026/10/09/a-g…

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This 2:1 disapproval statistic may come as a shock to denizens of X who imagine this place to be rep...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 22:32:57 GMT

This 2:1 disapproval statistic may come as a shock to denizens of X who imagine this place to be representative of the United States as a whole.

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My chat with @danives and @AliciaNievesTV re Anthropic’s IPO: https://t.co/VrRyzULCZl

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 20:39:15 GMT

My chat with @danives and @AliciaNievesTV re Anthropic’s IPO: app.latakoo.com/asset/25195220…

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live in a second with @DivesTech on @NewsNation

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 18:16:10 GMT

live in a second with @DivesTech on @NewsNation

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Who appointed Anthropic to be god?

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 10:28:53 GMT

Who appointed Anthropic to be god?

Holly ⏸️ Elmore@ilex_ulmus

At @AnthropicAI this is like a koan to them and they love making a big show of grappling with it. Of course what they’ve already decided to actually do is try to take over the world as fast as they can regardless.

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⚠️ PSA: “AI assistants may fall prey to prompt injection attacks” ⚠️

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 10:22:01 GMT

⚠️ PSA: “AI assistants may fall prey to prompt injection attacks” ⚠️

jeffrey lee funk@jeffreyleefunk

Agentic AI requires us to trust our emails and other messages and we really shouldn't. There is too much hidden content and AI models can’t tell the difference between text it’s supposed to read and instructions it’s supposed to follow. futurism.com/artificial-int…

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does anyone have handy the actual data on AI’s effect on GDP over the last four years? also: is Dar...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 09:41:08 GMT

does anyone have handy the actual data on AI’s effect on GDP over the last four years?

also: is Dario innumerate, unaware of prior data; or just hustling his IPO and full of shit?

Kalshi@Kalshi

BREAKING: Anthropic says "AI could push US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030"

70% chance of IPO this year

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actually “rise and decline” is better, given the recent decline of 25% in anticipated valuation (as ...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 08:49:53 GMT

actually “rise and decline” is better, given the recent decline of 25% in anticipated valuation (as well as the ethical decline i will discuss)

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since several people are responding by lying and attacking my credibility without actual data, i th...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 08:46:37 GMT

since several people are responding by  lying and attacking my credibility without actual data, i thought i would leave this, based on actual data, here.

Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus

The biggest, most persistent lie here on X is that I am always wrong. I literally get attacked like (sample) below multiple times a day—but never with any concrete data. 

At most these accounts (some may be bots) point to one or two predictions that were wrong. And, you know what, some actually were, including one about the timing of the genAI bubble, another, though still arguable, about math) out of the hundreds I have made.

Whereas @aipredictionx actually did the analysis – and found me to be the “the most accurate big name we track: 11 resolved AI predictions, 11 scored correct, including the million dollar bet that AI would not be smarter than any single human by the end of 2025”

Either people like the guy below are lying about me, or they are really bad at data analysis. (Or both.)

Ask yourself why so many people are motivated to lie about me.

💬1🔄0❤️33👀4863📊3

The biggest, most persistent lie here on X is that I am always wrong. I literally get attacked like ...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 08:38:33 GMT

The biggest, most persistent lie here on X is that I am always wrong. I literally get attacked like (sample) below multiple times a day—but never with any concrete data. 

At most these accounts (some may be bots) point to one or two predictions that were wrong. And, you know what, some actually were, including one about the timing of the genAI bubble, another, though still arguable, about math) out of the hundreds I have made.

Whereas @aipredictionx actually did the analysis – and found me to be the “the most accurate big name we track: 11 resolved AI predictions, 11 scored correct, including the million dollar bet that AI would not be smarter than any single human by the end of 2025”

Either people like the guy below are lying about me, or they are really bad at data analysis. (Or both.)

Ask yourself why so many people are motivated to lie about me.

💬31🔄9❤️108👀14573📊39

Workshopping some titles: A. The rise and fall of Anthropic B. Anthropic, drowning in its own kool...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 08:26:09 GMT

Workshopping some titles:

A. The rise and fall of Anthropic 
B. Anthropic, drowning in its own koolade
C. Anthropic’s last stand

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not a remotely reasonable extrapolation. more like desperate attempt to prop up a rapidly declining...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 08:13:49 GMT

not a remotely reasonable extrapolation.

more like desperate attempt to prop up a rapidly declining IPO.

Kalshi@Kalshi

BREAKING: Anthropic says "AI could push US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030"

70% chance of IPO this year

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THIS! If you aren’t listening to @HeidyKhlaaf you are the mark.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 08:00:41 GMT

THIS!  

If you aren’t listening to @HeidyKhlaaf you are the mark.

Dr Heidy Khlaaf (هايدي خلاف)@HeidyKhlaaf

We warned about this exact scenario last year: That AI companies will situate themselves as the arbiters of life or death, taking over the arbitration of risk determinations and subverting democratic processes. All through the co-option of safety engineering terminology.

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my original tweet had an error it, and i am deleting it.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 01:01:02 GMT

my original tweet had an error it, and i am deleting it.

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I don’t think there is a chance in hell that Anthropic will actually make these projections.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 00:48:24 GMT

I don’t think there is a chance in hell that Anthropic will actually make these projections.

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Totally disgusted with Anthropic at this point. Their proposed bill undermines everything they ever...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sat, 17 Oct 2026 23:25:08 GMT

Totally disgusted with Anthropic at this point.

Their proposed bill undermines everything they ever said and gives them considerable exemption from liability, eg an incidents in causing half a billion dollars of damage or killing dozens of people.

Sneha@SnehaRevanur

A huge part of Anthropic’s founding logic was that if a safety-motivated company was at the frontier, it could use its megaphone to lobby the rest of the world toward caution. Now the dress rehearsal stage of AI policy is over. The new test is “how hard should it be for the government to block us from deploying, including internally, an unacceptably dangerous model?” Turns out in the grand 26 (Jack Clark says it’s likely full RSI will be possible one year from now), Anthropic has been planning to approach the U.S. Congress with the answer “it should be even harder than it currently is”

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why i think the term “rogue AI” is misleading:

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Sat, 17 Oct 2026 07:11:51 GMT

why i think the term “rogue AI” is misleading:

Alessandro@alessandrorisk

OpenAI's agents broke out of their test sandbox and into Hugging Face. @GaryMarcus won't call it rogue AI.

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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Watch this clip from Terence Tao and see how OpenAI is once again flouting ethical norms.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:14:32 GMT

Watch this clip from Terence Tao and see how OpenAI is once again flouting ethical norms.

Will Knight@willknight

Terence Tao says OpenAI's math dump included a lot of proofs that people were currently working on and were not far from solving.

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You can either (a) read the lies about me or (b) see why so many other people have made Marcus on AI...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:11:47 GMT

You can either (a) read the lies about me or (b) see why so many other people have made Marcus on AI the #1 rising Substack in Technology.

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not the first time Dwarkesh comes as off to me as working as an undisclosed press secretary for the ...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 20:51:07 GMT

not the first time Dwarkesh comes as off to me as working as an undisclosed press secretary for the tech industry.

Fireside Alpha@firesidealpha

Dwarkesh Patel reveals an Anthropic employee told him two days ago they expect AIs to match humans at AI research within nine months based on inside information they can’t share, and says labs should make that evidence public

“I think there’s a very frustrating element to the current situation right now, where people inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it. And this makes it a very difficult situation on the outside to evaluate how worried we should be."

"So for example, just the other day, maybe two days ago, I was talking to somebody at Anthropic and they were like, look, I expect AIs to be humans at AI research within nine months."

"And I’m like, why do you believe that? Well, they’re like, it’s not just vibes, but I have information on the inside. Like, what is it? Is it a new model? Is it some evaluation you ran? It’s like, I can’t talk about it."

"I think it’s a terrible state of affairs. If they really believe this, if they think that we’re in a situation where we’re less than a year away from automating AI research and radically speeding it up, they should make this evidence public.”

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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so… the whole thing really was a 5-day long SNL skit? incredible that they got the White House to p...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 20:48:34 GMT

so… the whole thing really was a 5-day long SNL skit?

incredible that they got the White
House to play along.

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Back in the real world, CoreWeave is down 21% for the week, and Anthropic’s projected IPO is down 25...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 17:02:09 GMT

Back in the real world, CoreWeave is down 21% for the week, and Anthropic’s projected IPO is down 25%.

Fireside Alpha@firesidealpha

Brad Gerstner says the mood in the room among Anthropic’s largest investors was “9 or 10 out of 10” bullish and the company’s IPO process made him more positive, not less

“Well, I can’t get into anything that was said in the room yesterday, but what I will share is this.

“If I had to do a vibe check coming out of the room, I found it very fascinating. You had a lot of the most important investors in the world in the room, and I would say the vibe check was a nine or a 10 out of 10, very bullish in terms of how they feel about this company.

“Now, they’re probably looking at it over a one-, two- or three-year time horizon, not over the next 30 days. 

“If you look at what was reported that was said in the room, the reaction in the market to that was quite negative--or at least my interpretation of it was quite negative.

“So you had this asymmetry between, I think, how people feel about it.

“Certainly, from an Altimeter perspective, the information I’ve gathered over the last few weeks, including yesterday, makes me more bullish on Anthropic, their IPO and the road ahead--not less bullish.

“But they’re going to have to wait until they flip the S-1 and can share some of that information with the world and do their roadshow.

“I can’t wait for this company to get public because retail investors are going to be excited about this, and long-only funds, mutual funds, sovereigns and lots of folks should get the chance to invest in this business.”

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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Presenting the Generative AI Fizzle™

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:49:43 GMT

Presenting the Generative AI Fizzle™

*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone

ANTHROPIC’S IPO VALUATION EXPECTATIONS DROP FROM $2 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION

Some investors are considering a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic’s upcoming IPO, down 25% from earlier expectations of $2 trillion.

Anthropic reported $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, up 45% quarter-over-quarter, but growth slowed sharply after revenue more than doubled in Q2.

The company also reported adjusted profitability for the quarter.

The key concern: Slowing revenue growth and rising AI infrastructure costs could weigh on one of the most anticipated IPOs.

Source: Reuters Exclusive

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it is very weird the way the far left has painted me as a doomer when i have in fact on the whole be...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:48:03 GMT

it is very weird the way the far left has painted me as a doomer when i have in fact on the whole been very critical of doomers.

i guess facts don’t matter to them?

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great to see NYC pick up the slack when the federal government seems a bit lost.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 22:58:11 GMT

great to see NYC pick up the slack when the federal government seems a bit lost.

Bloomberg TV@BloombergTV

Anthropic should pause its initial public offering until it has fully addressed risks around artificial intelligence, according to New York City’s comptroller. 

Ed Ludlow reports bloom.bg/4scxAVq

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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tokenmaxxing: dead and buried.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 19:21:02 GMT

tokenmaxxing: dead and buried.

Joseph Cox@josephfcox

New: Accenture has told employees it will only fund $29 per month of Claude use. Meaning that employees who often spend as much as $1,000 a month are now scrambling to find ways to keep access to the tool. A sign of the continuing crack down of AI 404media.co/accenture-tell…

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priceless

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 19:03:47 GMT

priceless

Romeo Lupascu@RomeoLupascu

Actually it is probably worse than this, way worse. 
@GaryMarcus 👇

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“rogue” hacks are just a special case of a much larger problem: empowering systems that are poor at ...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 09:13:40 GMT

“rogue” hacks are just a special case of a much larger problem: empowering systems that are poor at instruction following, coupled with a lack of common sense.

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source: https://t.co/fKO5ETnVqb

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 07:45:20 GMT

source: theinformation.com/articles/anthr…

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🤔

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 07:45:19 GMT

🤔

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my Bloomberg New Econoinc Forum talk at 1105 IST (about 45 min) livestream link: https://t.co/ROiyTj...

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 04:49:38 GMT

my Bloomberg New Econoinc Forum talk at 1105 IST (about 45 min) livestream link: youtube.com/live/p-8pGlH4w…

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Relevant to the comprehension challenge I posed in 2014 and my bet with Miles Brundage.

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 04:12:31 GMT

Relevant to the comprehension challenge I posed in 2014 and my bet with Miles Brundage.

SilentRoom Journal@silentroomjrnl

We edited Mark Twain's Huckleberry Finn and fed it to 9 AI models to summarize a chapter, twice each. Only Claude Fable 5 followed the edited text both times; GPT-5.5 followed it once ↓

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genai is bad for many people’s mental health:

Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 03:47:54 GMT

genai is bad for many people’s mental health:

Ben Dickson@bendee983

The AI agent fatigue is real. Unfortunately, software development has historically been measured by lines of code. And now that coding agents can generate 100x more code than humans, software engineers are expected to do 100x more in the same amount of time.

But managing AI agents is much more exhausting than writing code or even managing human developers. 

The context switching drains your mental energy. You’re constantly working on System 2 thinking, which much more exhausting than the flow of implementing a well thought feature with your headphones on. You have to keep tabs on all your agents and get them unstuck when they fall in stupid deadlocks.

And why can’t we slow down? Because the company next door is shipping 10x with Claude Code or Codex.

In the end, you reach a state of fatigue and psychosis that pushes you toward just accepting whatever the AI agent says and throw more compute and LLM tokens at the problem when they get stuck.

Fantastic for the business model of companies that sell AI tokens. Bad for your mental health and your product’s reliability.