Naval(@naval)

Yesterday's AIs ate the Internet and became a patchwork mediocrity. Today's AI hunts and feasts up...

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:11:44 GMT

Yesterday's AIs ate the Internet and became a patchwork mediocrity. 

Today's AI hunts and feasts upon the Mozarts, Einsteins, and Shakespeares of our age.

To birth a gang of ghostly geniuses that write our code, drive our cars, do our work, and run our world.

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Children are free until they learn that there are constraints to the world, and then we call them ad...

Naval (@naval) — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:08:07 GMT

Children are free until they learn that there are constraints to the world, and then we call them adults.

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When we see perfection in an idea, we call it truth. When we see it in a person, we call it love. ...

Naval (@naval) — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 06:37:58 GMT

When we see perfection in an idea, we call it truth.

When we see it in a person, we call it love.

When we see it in a thing, we call it beauty.

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You’re here because an unbroken chain of your ancestors, from tadpoles to monkeys to now, replicated...

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 02:22:11 GMT

You’re here because an unbroken chain of your ancestors, from tadpoles to monkeys to now, replicated. 

Don’t be the first one to miss the branch.

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One of the best recent podcasts on AI. Neil has a gift for explaining all of the jargon and insights...

Naval (@naval) — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:43:02 GMT

One of the best recent podcasts on AI. Neil has a gift for explaining all of the jargon and insights simply. 

(I’m not involved, just found it unusually educational).

Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

Neil Movva (@neilmovva) started his career at Nvidia, working on GPUs and kernels, and has an unusually deep understanding of inference, from software to chips to power.

We spend a lot of time on each of those layers, how they connect, and where the important tradeoffs are.

What makes this conversation special is how detailed it is (like a 401-level class), yet Neil makes it remarkably clear and easy to follow.

Today he runs Sail Research, a company building infrastructure for agents to make tokens as cheap as possible.

We discuss:
- Latency versus throughput
- Why there are no bad chips, only bad pricing
- The end of kernel engineering
- Buying chips and power no one else wants
- New chip architectures
- Nvidia lore + his contrarian view of the company
- Open source and the frontier labs

I learned a ton. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:38 Building a “Token Factory”
4:21 The Future of Background Agents
13:09 Nvidia and the GPU Stack
23:27 Chips, Memory, and Transformers
36:14 The Future of AI Training Data
44:32 Chip Scarcity and Compute Arbitrage
52:44 Reinventing the AI Data Center
59:01 Power and the “Scavenger Strategy”
1:10:10 Open vs. Closed AI

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To love is to gain joy from another’s well-being.

Naval (@naval) — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:40:12 GMT

To love is to gain joy from another’s well-being.

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The left is on a project to enforce equality, despite biology and markets. The goal of equality gi...

Naval (@naval) — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 09:55:06 GMT

The left is on a project to enforce equality, despite biology and markets. 

The goal of equality gives claim to the moral high ground, but contradicting biology and markets requires censorship and violence, which makes the whole project immoral.

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The people who want to censor (code, speech, money) are the bad guys.

Naval (@naval) — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 03:39:51 GMT

The people who want to censor (code, speech, money) are the bad guys.

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Frontier Labs are incented to be fearful as it provides a moral justification for staying closed. C...

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 13:27:21 GMT

Frontier Labs are incented to be fearful as it provides a moral justification for staying closed.

Chinese Labs take the consistent position of doing what’s good for all and being open.

So the little guys find themselves in the uncomfortable position of rooting for the Chinese…

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Immortality, meaning, and love are readily available - they’re just running around disguised as chil...

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:20:18 GMT

Immortality, meaning, and love are readily available - they’re just running around disguised as children.

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The time to be most ambitious is when you have nothing to lose or nothing left to gain.

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:59:26 GMT

The time to be most ambitious is when you have nothing to lose or nothing left to gain.

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Grok Bot is just cool. 😎 Of course an agent should be persistent. Of course it should have its ow...

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 17:53:03 GMT

Grok Bot is just cool. 😎

Of course an agent should be persistent.

Of course it should have its own computer.

All that remains is for it to be embodied…

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Eventually, all UI will be chat and gestures in, chat and video out.

Naval (@naval) — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:20:50 GMT

Eventually, all UI will be chat and gestures in, chat and video out.

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https://t.co/vDgIxDD1sO

Naval (@naval) — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 01:02:47 GMT

✌.com

Guillermo Rauch@rauchg

▲.to

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Don’t send me the report, just send me the prompt.

Naval (@naval) — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:48:34 GMT

Don’t send me the report, just send me the prompt.

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California has the ultimate privilege - a monopoly on all of the warm, dry coastline in the most pow...

Naval (@naval) — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 09:39:02 GMT

California has the ultimate privilege - a monopoly on all of the warm, dry coastline in the most powerful empire in the world.

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You cannot create God and put him on a leash.

Naval (@naval) — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 08:57:33 GMT

You cannot create God and put him on a leash.

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Literally nobody has been held accountable for Covid.

Naval (@naval) — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:11:24 GMT

Literally nobody has been held accountable for Covid.

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People who are serious about software train their own models.

Naval (@naval) — Tue, 11 Aug 2026 01:27:02 GMT

People who are serious about software train their own models.

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Open-source AI models do not threaten frontier lab profitability. The most valuable sectors of the ...

Naval (@naval) — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 08:47:57 GMT

Open-source AI models do not threaten frontier lab profitability.

The most valuable sectors of the economy - investing, product development, war, cybersecurity, even scientific discovery - are adversarial and competitive in nature.

You pay to win, or someone else will.

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The hierarchy of desire: - The fame - The money - The team - The product - The work itself

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 20:11:45 GMT

The hierarchy of desire:
- The fame
- The money
- The team
- The product
- The work itself

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Agent Programming Interface.

Naval (@naval) — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 03:22:57 GMT

Agent Programming Interface.

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Every “save the world” scheme starts by handing the money and power to the schemers first.

Naval (@naval) — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 13:29:45 GMT

Every “save the world” scheme starts by handing the money and power to the schemers first.

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Drones vs interceptors is not an even matchup - it’s like guns vs armored vests. The attacker gets ...

Naval (@naval) — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 12:45:23 GMT

Drones vs interceptors is not an even matchup - it’s like guns vs armored vests.

The attacker gets surprise, gravity, & force concentration.

Jamming and EMPs can’t stop hardened autonomous bullets 

The logic of MAD brought to individuals.

If you can see it, you can kill it.

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If there were backdoors and biases hidden in open-weight models, you could count on closed-weight la...

Naval (@naval) — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 16:31:10 GMT

If there were backdoors and biases hidden in open-weight models, you could count on closed-weight labs to find and reveal them.

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Don’t sell anything you wouldn’t want your children to buy.

Naval (@naval) — Sat, 25 Jul 2026 21:38:18 GMT

Don’t sell anything you wouldn’t want your children to buy.

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It doesn’t matter if open source software is developed by the CCP, the NSA, the Jews, ISIS, MAGA, AN...

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 18:55:27 GMT

It doesn’t matter if open source software is developed by the CCP, the NSA, the Jews, ISIS, MAGA, ANTIFA, or the Illuminati.

It’s open source - just audit and run it yourself. 

They can send me gold bricks too, as long as they’re at it.

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When software was expensive - thin, horizontal, best-of-breed software stacks extracted rents across...

Naval (@naval) — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 22:09:11 GMT

When software was expensive - thin, horizontal, best-of-breed software stacks extracted rents across every business. 

Now that software is cheap - value moves to vertically integrated businesses that deliver opinionated end-to-end experiences.

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Code is speech. The people pushing to ban open source and free speech are the bad guys.

Naval (@naval) — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 17:20:42 GMT

Code is speech. The people pushing to ban open source and free speech are the bad guys.

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Those against freedom of speech are the bad guys!

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Regulatory capture by any other name tastes just as sour…

Naval (@naval) — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 11:26:03 GMT

Regulatory capture by any other name tastes just as sour…

Demis Hassabis@demishassabis

x.com/i/article/2076…

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Existence itself is a miracle - the rest is science. There is no single meaning to existence - if ...

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 09:45:40 GMT

Existence itself is a miracle - the rest is science. 

There is no single meaning to existence - if there were, we’d be slaves to it.

Within existence, there are rules of logic and science. If it was magic, the world would be un-navigable.

Truly the best of all possible worlds.

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Except for love, the world is empty.

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 08:49:57 GMT

Except for love, the world is empty.

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From our team at Impossible Research - an agent harness that plays games, writes code, reasons like ...

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:08:18 GMT

From our team at Impossible Research - an agent harness that plays games, writes code, reasons like a physicist, and saturates the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark.

Haven Feng@HavenFeng

Today, we’re introducing [schema]:  a harness reaching 99% RHAE with Opus 4.8 + Fable 5 and 95.35% with GPT-5.6 Sol on ARC-AGI-3 Public set.

[schema] makes an LLM think like a physicist. 🧵

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You won’t get rich just working hard, but if you don’t work hard, you won’t get rich.

Naval (@naval) — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 04:47:50 GMT

You won’t get rich just working hard, but if you don’t work hard, you won’t get rich.

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If you get an email from me, it’s fake.

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 12:44:40 GMT

If you get an email from me, it’s fake.

Ankur Nagpal@ankurnagpal

PSA: There is a nasty impersonation scam going around with USVC at the moment

If you get an email from me or @naval asking about your USVC investment, it's likely fake:

1. Naval will never email you.  He's allergic to email.

2. If it's from me or someone else from the USVC team, check the domain of the sender before responding. We'll only ever email from a usvc or angellist domain

Be careful out there

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If the child loved the parents as much as the parents loved the child, their passing would be intole...

Naval (@naval) — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 16:09:34 GMT

If the child loved the parents as much as the parents loved the child, their passing would be intolerable.

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The problem with truth is, once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

Naval (@naval) — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 11:57:06 GMT

The problem with truth is, once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

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Happy Birthday America, Land of the Free. Don’t give up on the First, Second, Fourth, and Ninth Ame...

Naval (@naval) — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 04:48:13 GMT

Happy Birthday America, Land of the Free.

Don’t give up on the First, Second, Fourth, and Ninth Amendments. 

They’re unique, and your freedom - and the worlds’ - depends on them.

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Apple: https://t.co/tKOwdgm5U5 Spotify: https://t.co/ZwLofm4Dhf YouTube: https://t.co/w134gAkKjn ...

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 05:24:52 GMT

Apple: apple.co/4v7TsRi

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0rLGnF…

YouTube: youtu.be/6m-ZZBCiiEE

Substack: open.substack.com/pub/naval/p/li…

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New podcast with @garrytan, @farbood and Daniel Francis. Live in the Future! 00:00 Guest Intros 02...

Naval (@naval) — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 05:24:51 GMT

New podcast with @garrytan, @farbood and Daniel Francis.

Live in the Future!

00 Guest Intros
35 Live in the Future
58 Will AI Outsmart us?
43 In the Anthropic Breadline
59 The Tech Genie Is Out
33 We Invested in COVID?!
25 Good Writing Is Novelty
50 Living Like It’s 2028
32 Truth dot ai
18 Does China have the Weights?
38 Everyone has AI Anxiety
32 Have Your Agent Talk to My Agent
01 What if Open Source takes the Lead?
03 The Sun is Setting on Google
00 Ride the AGI
46 Will There be Startups?
05 Defending Taiwan
00:05 The California Empire
01:26 If the U.S. Falls
03:11 Universal Basic Robot
06:01 Humans as AI Handlers

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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If AI is doing the writing, it should do the reading too.

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 04:00:09 GMT

If AI is doing the writing, it should do the reading too.

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Great products are not so much invented as discovered.

Naval (@naval) — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:33:21 GMT

Great products are not so much invented as discovered.

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Good marketing is finding different ways to tell the truth.

Naval (@naval) — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 23:28:04 GMT

Good marketing is finding different ways to tell the truth.

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Drones bring M.A.D. to conventional warfare.

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:46:35 GMT

Drones bring M.A.D. to conventional warfare.

ChrisO_wiki@ChrisO_wiki

1/ Ukraine's massive drone strike against Moscow – with a reported 555 drones and missiles fired, and 180 claimed to have been shot down over Moscow – has prompted anger, defiance, and resignation from Russian warbloggers. "Tehran is safer", one says. ⬇️
x.com/BohuslavskaKat…

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It's the Age of Builders. (sorry financiers and talkers)

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:35:05 GMT

It's the Age of Builders.

 (sorry financiers and talkers)

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If your success or failure is judged by other people, rather than by nature or free markets, you’re ...

Naval (@naval) — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:11:22 GMT

If your success or failure is judged by other people, rather than by nature or free markets, you’re playing a game, albeit a reified and social one.

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Not a free country.

Naval (@naval) — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:55:22 GMT

Not a free country.

Keir Starmer@Keir_Starmer

We are banning social media access for under 16s.

These days kids must find their feet in a world where technology intrudes into every area of their life.

I just can’t let that go on anymore. So we’re giving children their childhoods back.

Your browser does not support the video tag.

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There is no such thing as a scientific “method” in the sense of a reliable algorithm or repeatable p...

Naval (@naval) — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 16:51:01 GMT

There is no such thing as a scientific “method” in the sense of a reliable algorithm or repeatable process. 

We’re taught in grade school that a scientist tabulates observations, then induces a theory from those observations, and then tests them to get to the truth. 

But observations are themselves mini-theories (you never observe anything directly), induction from observations can’t give you novel theories (black swan problem), and testing can only eliminate competing theories, not prove them (error correction).

All you’re left with is creative guesswork and then eliminating the bad guesses to get you closer to the truth, but with no finality. Not much of a process or method. 

“Scientists” have no special method or process that they employ. They’re doing what all of us do all day long to navigate the world, hopefully with more rigor and dedication, but it’s the exact same process at its core.

What made the scientific revolution possible was a philosophical shift in which parts of western society created social conventions around rigorous truth seeking rather than continuing to justify the beliefs of the ancients. 

See Deutsch’s “The Beginning of Infinity” and Karl Popper’s writing, “On the Non-Existence of Scientific Method."

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